具有稳健初值的选权迭代法曲面拟合模型粗差探测     

王奉伟  周世健  周清  陆培鹤 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(6):39-41

将抗差估计的思想融入到二次曲面模型粗差探测的算法中,设计出对模型误差特别是粗差具有抵抗能力的粗差探测算法。稳健初值的选权迭代法即为抗差估计的一种,首先是通过线性规划的单纯形解法来计算观测值的残差,然后再根据残差和有关的参数,按所选择的权函数,计算每个观测值的权,经过迭代计算求得观测值的残差。通过实例证明,具有稳健初值的选权迭代法具有较强的稳健性和粗差探测能力。  相似文献   

边角后方交会在高铁板式无碴轨道放样中的应用     

陈慧建  周世健 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(4)

智能型全站仪结合边角后方交会原理在高速铁路测量工作中得到广泛应用,其在CPⅢ高精度铺轨控制网的基础上进行自由重叠设站的精度能满足高铁测量的精度要求。在板式无碴轨道底板放样和轨道板安装时,可以根据仪器误差参数计算得出每个测站进行放样时误差不超限的最远放样距离,供测量人员参考。  相似文献   

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林志强  边巴扎西  文胜军  周振波 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(3):222-231

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms (TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A (21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs (taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast (west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B (74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring, with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs (accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay (85° to 95°E), and 19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C (36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction, and 23 of the 36 TSs (64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.  相似文献   

Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections     

Chao Wang  Liguang Wu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):613-623

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.  相似文献   

“菲特”台风路径和强度预报难点分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

娄小芬  楼茂园  罗玲  范爱芬 《海洋预报》2015,32(1)

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料对其进行分析,结果表明:(1)副高突然加强西进,中低层高压带加强,在台风北侧形成高压坝和强盛偏东气流,是台风路径突然西折的主要原因;(2)"丹娜丝"的活动在一定程度上阻止了副热带高压的南落,有利于副高南侧偏东急流的维持和加强,对"菲特"路径的突然西折起一定作用。敏感性数值试验结果表明"双台风"效应对"菲特"登陆前进一步西折具有决定作用;(3)高低空急流的配置,产生了动力场的耦合作用,加强了台风的对流活动,所释放的潜热可以补偿海温降低的影响,对"菲特"在近海强度维持起到了重要作用;(4)"菲特"的强度和环境风垂直切变的演变规律基本一致,较低的环境风垂直切变是"菲特"在近海强度维持的重要原因。  相似文献   

一元非对称P范分布的极大似然平差     

潘雄  赵启龙  王俊雷  袁珊丽 《测绘学报》2011,40(1):33-36

从测量误差的实际情况出发,提出一元非对称P范分布极大似然平差方法,建立该方法的数学模型,得到一元非对称P范分布的密度函数,利用极大似然估计方法推导参数估计值的基础方程.研究表明,结合实际测量数据,通过选择合适的参数估计值,可以增加误差分布模型选取的灵活性,便于P范分布理论在测绘数据处理中的推广应用.  相似文献   

基于GPS的列控轨道地图数据生成方法研究     

刘江  蔡伯根  唐涛  王剑 《测绘学报》2011,40(1):111-117

为满足列车运行控制及列车定位不同层次的需求,将轨道地图数据分为轨道专用数据、轨道线路数据及地形环境数据,并对轨道地图线路数据按照不同尺度划分为特征点层及插值点层,形成列控轨道地图结构.针对原始GPS地图测量数据,采用多点加权距离检验及Kalman估计差值检验实现错误数据剔除;根据轨道曲线特征对原始数据进行划分,通过在各...  相似文献   

基于Kalman滤波的动力学模型误差估计算法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

高为广  张晓东 《测绘科学》2011,36(2):56-58

本文分析介绍了模型误差对滤波解和预报残差影响的表达式.随后,针对GPS/INS松组合导航系统观测信息无冗余的情况,给出了基于Kalman滤波的动力学模型误差估计算法.最后利用一个车载实测数据证明了算法的有效性.  相似文献   

基于验后方差估计原理导出的选权迭代法剔除粗差     

孙同贺 《测绘与空间地理信息》2011,34(1):215-217

将抗差估计的思想融入到粗差探测的算法中,设计出对模型误差,特别是粗差具有抵抗能力的粗差探测算法.基于验后方差估计原理导出的选权迭代法即为抗差佑计的一种,首先是应用最小二乘法来计算观测值的参数x、残差V、协因数阵Qvv及单位权σ0 的初值,然后再根据残差和有关的参数,按所选择的权函数,计算每个观测值的权,经过迭代计算求得...  相似文献   

台风风神海上石油平台预报服务探讨     

罗森波  罗秋红  舒锋敏  林永堂 《气象》2011,37(6):742-748

总结了在对台风风神数值预报失效,预报路径偏东的情况下,预报人员抓住天气形势的细微变化对路径及时修正,并紧密结合用户需求,以“全程跟进,及时沟通,急用户之所急”的高度责任心和服务态度,使海上石油平台1500人安全撤离,避免了人员伤亡和重大经济损失的服务过程。经研究发现：(1)“风神”偏西侧的强对流发展、地面负变压中心、中层正涡度中心、高层正散度中心的存在,以及云图北侧带状黑体区的形成均有利于“风神”西折;(2)在500hPa图上,“风神”前期西南部有一低压环流中心,后期东北侧高压坝形成,造成“风神”两次北翘。  相似文献